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Abstract Climate change is rapidly altering the distribution of suitable habitats for many species as well as their pathogenic microbes. For many pathogens, including vector‐borne diseases of humans and agricultural pathogens, climate change is expected to increase transmission and lead to pathogen range expansions. However, if pathogens have a lower heat tolerance than their host, increased warming could generate so‐called thermal refugia for hosts. Predicting the outcomes of warming on disease transmission requires detailed knowledge of the thermal tolerances of both the host and the pathogen. Such thermal tolerance studies are generally lacking for fungal pathogens of wild plant populations, despite the fact that plants form the base of all terrestrial communities. Here, we quantified three aspects of the thermal tolerance (growth, infection, and propagule production) of the naturally occurring fungal pathogenMicrobotryum lychnidis‐dioicae, which causes a sterilizing anther‐smut disease on the herbaceous plantSilene latifolia. We also quantified two aspects of host thermal tolerance: seedling survival and flowering rate. We found that temperatures >30°C reduced the ability of anther‐smut spores to germinate, grow, and conjugate in vitro. In addition, we found that high temperatures (30°C) during or shortly after the time of inoculation strongly reduced the likelihood of infection in seedlings. Finally, we found that high summer temperatures in the field temporarily cured infected plants, likely reducing transmission. Notably, high temperatures did not reduce survival or flowering of the host plants. Taken together, our results show that the fungus is considerably more sensitive to high temperatures than its host plant. A warming climate could therefore result in reduced disease spread or even local pathogen extirpation, leading to thermal refugia for the host. 

Innate, infection-preventing resistance often varies between host life stages. Juveniles are more resistant than adults in some species, whereas the opposite pattern is true in others. This variation cannot always be explained by prior exposure or physiological constraints and so it has been hypothesized that trade-offs with other life-history traits may be involved. However, little is known about how trade-offs between various life-history traits and resistance at different life stages affect the evolution of age-specific resistance. Here, we use a mathematical model to explore how trade-offs with natural mortality, reproduction and maturation combine to affect the evolution of resistance at different life stages. Our results show that certain combinations of trade-offs have substantial effects on whether adults or juveniles are more resistant, with trade-offs between juvenile resistance and adult reproduction inherently more costly than trade-offs involving maturation or mortality (all else being equal), resulting in consistent evolution of lower resistance at the juvenile stage even when infection causes a lifelong fecundity reduction. Our model demonstrates how the differences between patterns of age-structured resistance seen in nature may be explained by variation in the trade-offs involved and our results suggest conditions under which trade-offs tend to select for lower resistance in juveniles than adults. 

Abstract Theoretical models suggest that infectious diseases could play a substantial role in determining the spatial extent of host species, but few studies have collected the empirical data required to test this hypothesis. Pathogens that sterilize their hosts or spread through frequency‐dependent transmission could have especially strong effects on the limits of species' distributions because diseased hosts that are sterilized but not killed may continue to produce infectious stages and frequency‐dependent transmission mechanisms are effective even at very low population densities. We collected spatial pathogen prevalence data and population abundance data for alpine carnations infected by the sterilizing pathogenMicrobotryum dianthorum, a parasite that is spread through both frequency‐dependent (vector‐borne) and density‐dependent (aerial spore transmission) mechanisms. Our 13‐year study reveals rapid declines in population abundance without a compensatory decrease in pathogen prevalence. We apply a stochastic, spatial model of parasite spread that accommodates spatial habitat heterogeneity to investigate how the population dynamics depend on multimodal (frequency‐dependent and density‐dependent) transmission. We found that the observed rate of population decline could plausibly be explained by multimodal transmission, but is unlikely to be explained by either frequency‐dependent or density‐dependent mechanisms alone. Multimodal pathogen transmission rates high enough to explain the observed decline predicted that eventual local extinction of the host species is highly likely. Our results add to a growing body of literature showing how multimodal transmission can constrain species distributions in nature.